As we look back on the month of July, the standout stories for the summer so far have been strong U.S. economic growth and surging corporate profits. This latest Client Letter recaps these reports and emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamentals through any potential stock market volatility.
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The economy grew 4.1% in the second quarter, topping 4% for the first time since the third quarter of 2014.
Active management may be poised for a comeback.
In testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script, saying little to alter the Fed’s perceived course.
The economy may have posted unusually strong growth of near 4% or more in the second quarter.
Consensus estimates are calling for a 21% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings for the second quarter.
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Portfolio Compass | July 19, 2018
Downgraded large/small foreign equities to negative/neutral from neutral. Downgraded industrial metals to neutral from neutral/positive. Downgraded agriculture to negative/neutral from neutral.
Rates may be poised to rise further in the second half of 2018, though likely at a slower pace than the first half of the year.
The global growth story remains steady in 2018, with growth forecast at 3.8%.
The current environment looks favorable for strong earnings and stock gains.